Page 17 - LH_Research_Report_2020_Eng

We have warned in our 2019 report Hanging on the Housing Supply Cliff—Are
There Any More Bandages Around? that the private residential market is faltering
as seen in several leading indicators. In 2019, we continued to see the slowdown
materialising as the set of indicators saw further deterioration.

The first indicator is the substantial reduction in the amount of
spade-ready land for private housing development. For the year of
2019/20, the actual land supply from the Government’s land sale
programme would be able to provide about 12,190 units only, marking
a 53% decrease from the peak in 2017/18.

For the year 2020/21, the Government’s spade-ready land forecast is 15,730
units. Nonetheless, the spade-ready land supply is on average 30% below the
forecast for 2013/14–2019/20. It is possible that the total land supply from this
year’s spade-ready land supply can only deliver 11,000 units.

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