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In the four years leading to 2023/24, 81,400 public housing units are expected to
be completed, which will fall short of the 2018 LTHS target of providing 126,000
units.
Moreover, only 272,000 public housing units can be built in the next ten years
(2020/21–2029/30) even if no delays exist, according to the Government’s latest
forecast. However, the Government’s ten-year forecast of 272,000 units may be
too optimistic, as delays in public housing were becoming more common and will
likely continue.

Instead of 272,000 units, we expect that the Government will be
able to supply 249,000 units over the next ten years. Comparing
this against the 2018 LTHS target of 315,000 units, 66,000 units of
shortfall in public housing will be incurred in the next ten years.

The LTHS housing supply target in 2018 was set at 315,000 units for the next
rolling ten years, following the revision of the public/private split from 60:40 to
70:30. Subsequent to that, the Government has revised down the target in 2019
to 301,000 units. In choosing a target to calculate for the shortfall, the 2018 LTHS
target has been opted for as the current intensifying housing crisis should not
justify for a decrease in target.

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