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However, this forecast fails to adequately reflect the reality. A key shortcoming of such a trend-based forecasting
method is that it would allow past trends to further continue into the future. In fact, the LTHS failed to acknowledge
that C&SD is indeed forecasting a household projection outcome in the future, rather the household projection
demand that the LTHS should be looking for.
Some concrete rebutting evidences could be found in our reality. Between 2006 and 2016, while only 126,000 new
private housing units were completed, there was an increase of 511,000 people living in private flats in the same
period. This means each newly completed unit housed 4.25 people, which is more than 50 per cent higher than
the city’s average of 2.8 people per household.
In fact, as we delve into the split between renters and owners, it is found that the average number of people
residing in owner-occupied private flats had not risen significantly, so it is the rented-out private flats that had to
accommodate more tenants in each unit. In fact, the average number of people per each rental unit rose from 2.64
people in 2006 to 3.07 in 2016, up 0.43, or by an overwhelming 16%.

These figures point to the harsh reality that many multigenerational families are forced to squeeze
into tiny flats in Hong Kong, causing the number of residents per private unit to shoot up. The
implication is that if the Government continues to rely on past trends to forecast demand, then real
housing needs will continue to be underestimated.

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