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The existing LTHS model is ‘garbage in, garbage out‘he existing LTHS model is ‘garbage in, garbage out‘
T
(Figure 42) Ten-year housing supply target stipulated in the LTHS
500,000
Number of units 450,000 OHKF’s projections
400,000
350,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
LTHS Annual Progress Report
Sources: LTHS Annual Progress Reports and Our Hong Kong Foundation
Changes in the LTHS supply targets for recent years foreshadow the presence of such vicious cycle. As seen in the LTHS annual
progress reports as at 2017–2019, the ten-year housing supply targets have been repeatedly adjusted downward. The reports
also attributed to the reduction in new household formation as the main reason behind the revision.
In an attempt to estimate the future LTHS supply targets, we collated data from the C&SD and the RVD, and mirrored the
methodology of the LTHS housing supply target projection. The results generated from the model indicate a continual drop in
the LTHS target. In five years, the housing supply target is expected to drop below 400,000 units.
The projected results suggest that the current methodology has failed to reflect the actual housing demand, thus will
continue to project a lower housing supply target, dampening the Government’s initiatives for increasing land supply.
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