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Figure 4.13
Total mortality to date in each scenario

100,000

80,000
Total Mortalities 60,000

40,000
20,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051

Base Scenario Mortality
Scenario 1 Mortality
Scenario 2 Mortality

High initial costs of Scheme implementation relative to cost
projections

While the model projects significant savings in the long run, we also acknowledge that within
the current model projections, both modeled scenarios of the Scheme will result in higher
initial costs of programme implementation (Figure 4.12a, Figure 4.12b, and Figure 4.14).
We maintain that cost-savings are most likely to be accrued after an extended period within
the Scheme. Available literature on the risk of complications and duration of DM indicates
that patients are more at risk of complication development after 10 to 20 years of DM
duration, regardless of age of DM onset (Song & Hardisty, 2009). As such, the expenditure
level relative to the cost-saving level during the early years of the Scheme implementation
cannot sufficiently capture the true benefit to the health system and patients.

Most notably, we find that if the full Scheme were to be implemented, we would see greater
spending within the first five years (with the expected costs for screening and management
in year five alone totalling HKD 4.765 billions), relative to our Base Scenario of not
implementing the Scheme (with expected costs in year five totalling HKD 3.371 billions, a
29.3% decrease in spending relative to implementation). The bump in expected costs may be
disincentivising for policymakers in the short-term. However, as discussed previously, greater
savings are likely to be accrued in later years of implementation.

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