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iii. Scenario Analyses

To better assess and understand the possible range in which parameter values may vary
from those used within the model in order to achieve cost-savings and prevent premature
mortalities, we conducted various scenario analyses on drivers of the model. The findings are
summarised in the table below and in Appendix R.

Table 4.19

Scenario analysis findings
Parameter of Analysis results Implications on policy
interest
Remission rate To attain net-neutral cost-savings for the It is vital that patients with
from DM toward full screening and management Scheme, DM follow lifestyle
prediabetes remission rates must surpass 2.9%. modification guidance to
(Scenario analysis 1) achieve DM remission. If the
remission rate is too low,
there may not be cost-
savings to the health system.
Cost of DM If the cost of screening is raised to match The Government and
screening the cost of attendance at a GOPC purchasing authority should
(Scenario analysis 2) (HKD 445), the savings for the Scheme work towards a lower cost of
decreases from 27.57% to 16.19%. There screening within the private
will be no accrued savings if screening sector to ensure long-term
costs surpass HKD 780 per person. savings.

Complication • If the effects of the RAMP Providers should prioritise the
rates and costs management Scheme are muted and prevention and delaying of
(Scenario analysis 3) rates of complication development complication-onset to reduce
increase, the likely cost-savings will hospital inpatient care
decrease. spending.
• Conversely, if complication
development rates increase for all
patients between the Base Scenario
and Scenario 2, there is likely to be
greater savings.
• At varying complication rates and
costs per patients, we achieve
different cost-savings, with net-neutral
savings at 7.0% complication rate and
HKD 200,000 per patient cost.
Cost of If the cost of RAMP increases from For the Scheme
implementing RAMP HKD 244 to HKD 1,500, there are still implementation, there is
(Scenario analysis 4) likely to be cost-savings to the health greater flexibility in adjusting
system. the cost of RAMP to better
incentivise participation.
Adding prediabetes There remain cost savings over 20%, The Government and
management options even when there are additional purchasing authorities may
(Scenario analysis 5) prediabetes management options. consider a more holistic
Scheme to aid in stronger
primary care uptake.
Comparing Total spending in our base case is lower The Government and
impact to Base if no population-wide screening voucher purchasing authorities should
Scenario with were implemented but all diagnosed implementing a screening
existing RAMP-DM patients received RAMP-DM. This results voucher to gain more benefits
but without in lower savings and fewer prevented from early detection and
screening (Scenario mortalities. management of DM.
analysis 6)
Varying uptake rates Total spending decreases when the The Government and
of Scheme participation rate matches the EHCVS purchasing authorities should
participation ever-use rate due to increases in more strongly promote the
(Scenario analysis 7) mortality count. Nonetheless, the cost to Scheme and work to increase
prevent one mortality increases, participation in order to
suggesting that low initial participation reduce negative effects of
makes the Scheme less cost-efficient. insufficient screening and
management services.
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