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Scenario 2

Scenario 2 uses similar parameters to model demographic changes as Scenario 1. Mortality
counts for Scenario 2 were adjusted for mortality due to diabetic complications and
complications co-morbid with DM within the RAMP-DM programme, with the general
all-cause mortality stock remaining consistent to Base Scenario.

The methodology for calculating the healthcare costs in Scenario 2 are consistent to the
methodology used for Scenario 1. Due to the additional implementation of RAMP-DM in
Scenario 2, the costs of complications and rate of complications were further adjusted to
account for the cost of implementing RAMP-DM.

While we aimed to use data that most accurately represents that population health of Hong
Kong, we were limited by data availability. To address gaps in data availability, we conducted
a semi-systematic literature review and explored relevant available literature for possible data.
The main data gaps that were filled in our model encompassed:

• The transitional probability of progression from a state of no diabetes (termed “no DM”) to
pre-diabetes (termed “prediabetes”);
• The transitional probability of progression from prediabetes to DM;

• The regression rate from pre-diabetes to no DM and remission rate from DM to pre-DM; and
• The transitional probability and cost of progression from a state of DM without
complications to DM with complications.

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