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Table 7
Shifts in costs and savings due to increased screening costs

(HKD million) Base Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Costs over 30 years 45,346.76 36,506.35 38,005.76

Savings over 30 years 8,840.41 7,341.00
% Savings 19.50% 16.19%

Table Shifts in costs and savings due to increased screening costs

Scenario analysis 3: Complication rates and costs per patient

The complication rate used in the model is derived from a five-year cost effectiveness study
on the implementation of RAMP-DM in Hong Kong (F. F. Jiao et al., 2018). Given that these
figures directly correlate to the Hong Kong general population, these figures are likely to be
the most relevant to the target demographic. However, as the figures presented in the
research article are not age-stratified, we cannot approximate figures that are more closely
targeted to each age demographic. As such, we conducted various scenario analyses to
assess the cost impact of different complication rates in each of the three scenarios. Firstly,
we assessed the impact on cost if the complication rates between all three scenarios were
set to the higher complication rate of 6.20%, which assumes that everyone, regardless of
RAMP-DM participation, faces the same risk for complication development. This shift
principally affects the cost-savings in Scenario 2, wherein the percentage cost savings
decrease significantly from 27.57% to 19.37% (Table 8).

Table 8

Shifts in costs and savings due to higher complication rates in Scenario 2

(HKD million) Base Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Costs over 30 years 45,346.76 31,362.88 36,561.48
Savings over 30 years 13,983.87 8,785.28

% Savings 30.84% 19.37%

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