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APPENDIX P: CALCULATIONS OF PARAMETERS

Table 4
Calculations for parameter values

Parameters Value Reference Calculations Involved
Starting points
Pre-diabetes prevalence as 1.24% (CHP, 2017, 2018, 2020c)
at 2022
Already have diagnosis 2.46% (CHP, 2017, 2018, 2020c)
before 2022
Diabetic but without 4.86% (CHP, 2017, 2018, 2020c)
diagnosis before 2022
Flows parameters
Incidence of pre-diabetes 0.99% (Quan et al., 2017) Average rate of change in
from no diagnosis prevalence of diabetes
Base Case-Incidence of new 3.73% (Okada et al., 2017)
DM cases from pre-diabetes
cases
Scenario 1 and 2-Incidence 2.80% (Okada et al., 2017)
of new DM cases from
pre-diabetes cases
Regression rate from pre- 2.82% (Paprott et al., 2018) Regression of 33.6% over 12 years
diabetes to normoglycaemia from the pre-diabetic population
Scenario 1 and 2-Remission 7.00% (Ried‐Larsen et al., 2019)
rate from diabetes to pre-
diabetes
Assumed complication rate 150% (Song & Hardisty, 2009) There is no consistent/aggregate
multiplier of 20Y+ value for multiplier of complication
rates. For Macrovascular
complications after 20 years, the
adjustment factor ranges from 1.06
to 1.75. For Microvascular
complications, the factor ranges
from 1.37 to 1.90. The average
adjustment factor is 1.49, or 150%.
Complications rates and costs
Base Case and Scenario 1
Complications rate (usual 6.20% (Jiao et al., 2018)
care)
Complications cost per HKD 106,523.39 (Jiao et al., 2018) [USD 19,561 * 7.8 HKD/USD *
patient (usual care) 1/5 years]*[N=8,570]/[2,455
Observed complication events]
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 5,705.28 (Jiao et al., 2017) [exp(9.381) * 1.05(50–65)]
aged 45–54 (usual care)
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 9,293.30 (Jiao et al., 2017)
aged 55–64 (usual care)
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 15,137.81 (Jiao et al., 2017)
aged 65–74 (usual care)
Scenario 2
Complications rate (RAMP) 3.81% (Jiao et al., 2018)
Complications cost per HKD 123,363.56 (Jiao et al., 2018) [USD 12,110 * HKD/USD 7.8 / 5
patient (RAMP) years]*[N=8,570]/[1,315 Observed
complication events]
Cost of RAMP HKD 244.92 (Jiao et al., 2018)
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 5,950.20 (Jiao et al., 2017, 2018) usual_cost + [USD 157 * HKD/USD
aged 45–54 (RAMP) 7.8 * 1/5years]
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 9,538.22 (Jiao et al., 2017, 2018)
aged 55–64 (RAMP)
Cost per “healthy” patient, HKD 15,382.73 (Jiao et al., 2017, 2018)
aged 65–74 (RAMP)
Cost of intervention for HKD 3,486.00 (HA, 2021f)
diagnosed DM patients

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