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ii. Scenario analyses
We conducted a series of scenario analyses to explore the possible benefit-cost range of
different key parameter values if the Scheme were to be implemented. The set of scenario
analyses conducted includes:

1) Scenario analysis 1: varying remission rates within Scenarios 1 and 2 to explore
the impact of remission on cost-benefits
2) Scenario analysis 2: varying the cost of screening to assess the likelihood of
cost impact
3) Scenario analysis 3: assessing costs and savings of different complication rates
and costs per patients with DM complications
4) Scenario analysis 4: differing the administrative and running costs of RAMP-DM
programme
5) Scenario analysis 5: adding a management cost for prediabetes patients to stymie
their disease progression

6) Scenario analysis 6: comparing the impact of a screening programme against a
Base Scenario with existing RAMP-DM

7) Scenario analysis 7: assessing the impact of the Scheme on costs and savings if the
target population takes up the Scheme in a naturalistic manner,
rather than all at once.

4.3.5 RESULTS

i. Parameters used in the model

To determine the overall cost and benefit of a large-scale population-wide DM screening
programme, we first investigated the prevalence of DM in the target screening population.
The screening voucher Scheme will specifically target individuals between and inclusive of
the ages 45 and 54 years, regardless of existing prior DM diagnosis. The prevalence
estimation was based on the CHP’s 2014/15 PHS, specifically, on the table entitled
“Prevalence of diabetes mellitus amongst persons aged 15 to 84 by age group”.

Based on the Department of Health data on DM prevalence, we identified three main values
for the population age demographic between years 45 and 54. While the data on prevalence
is based on figures presented in the PHS 2014/15 and may therefore be insufficiently
representative of the current population health trends, this data source remains the most
up-to-date population-wide survey regarding DM (Table 4.10). The data used are as follows:

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