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Table 4.14
Number of individuals at each diagnostic state per five-year intervals
(Scenario 1)

2022 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
“Healthy”
population 1,031,809 989,631 947,101 903,765 867,155 816,363 771,369
Prediabetes 13,992 66,380 108,803 134,833 151,022 159,604 162,967
population
DM population 82,599 63,198 52,321 47,129 46,361 42,876 41,631

Consequently, under Scenario 1 where all individuals in the target age demographic undergo
screening, the cost of complications (including the cost of additional intervention subsidies to
diagnosed patients) decreases relative to the Base Scenario (Figure 4.12b). In particular, the
cost of complications for individuals is markedly lower in Scenario 1. This lower cost is the
result of fewer patients with DM after the implementation of screening and basic lifestyle
modification.

Within Scenario 1, after the implementation and adoption of the screening programme,
we project that there will be cost savings to the health system compared to having no
screening (Base Scenario). In particular, our BIA forecasts a total spending of
HKD 31.36 billion over the 30-year horizon. This translates to a 30.84%
savings in costs relative to the Base Scenario (Table 4.16). The projected savings
over the 30-year period amount to HKD 13.98 billion.

Total cost of DM care (Scenario 1) = [Screening cost] + [Intervention cost] +
[Complications care] + [Care for patients without complications]

Scenario 2
Relative to Scenario 1, there are more individuals in the prediabetes and DM population at
the end of the 30-year horizon despite similar rates of change for disease progression and
remission (Figure 4.11) (Table 4.15). This result is due to a lower mortality rate specific to DM,
thus allowing more individuals to progress through the different diagnostic states of DM.

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