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Table 4.13
Total DM-related mortality and average DM-related mortality per year
over 10-year intervals (Base Scenario)

2022–2031 2032–2041 2042–2051
Total DM-related Mortality 6,508 18,021 43,978
Average DM-related 651 1,802 4,398
Mortality Per Year

Of note, the costs associated with complications and mortality grow significantly within the
30-year horizon of the model due to the growing burden of DM cases and mortality.

Consequently, the total costs for the care and management of DM over a
30-year time span is projected to total HKD 45.35 billion. The average yearly
costs of care are expected to reach approximately HKD 1.51 billion.

Total cost of DM care (Base Scenario) = [Complications care] + [Care for patients without
complications]

Scenario 1

In modelling the implementation of a DM screening programme, we first projected the likely
progression of the target population through each diagnostic state assuming that the entire
target population partook in the screening programme. The results of this projection showed
that relative to the demographic trends in Base Scenario, the size of the “healthy” population
would be larger at the end of the 30-year time horizon, and the size of the prediabetes
population would increase significantly in comparison, while the size of the DM population
would decrease (Figure 4.10) (Table 4.14). The principal rationale for this shift in demographic
trends is the inclusion of the remission from DM toward prediabetes, wherein the screening
programme is expected to diagnose DM and offer timely intervention to aid in controlling and
managing patients’ conditions.

Figure 4.10

Diagnostic category shifts in scenario 1

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000

400,000
200,000
0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051

“Healthy” population
Pre-DM
DM cases

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