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ii. Cost calculations per scenario

Base Scenario
After accounting for the progression of patients’ DM conditions and regression towards
normoglycaemia (i.e., the state of a having a normal blood glucose level), the flow of patients
between different disease groups reveals a trend towards growing DM and prediabetes
populations over the 30 years (Figure 4.9) (Table 4.12).

Figure 4.9

Diagnostic Category Shifts in Base Scenario
Diagnostic category shifts in base scenario

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000

0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051

“Healthy” population
Pre-DM
DM cases

Table 4.12

Number of individuals at each diagnostic state per five-year intervals
(Base Scenario)

2022 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

“Healthy”
population 1,031,809 988,714 942,572 894,077 851,438 794,100 742,352
Pre-diabetes 13,992 46,562 73,960 90,597 100,115 104,140 104,553
population
DM population 82,599 83,811 91,024 97,498 105,815 102,543 100,319

The mortality rate for each diagnostic group remains consistent within each ten-year period,
between 2022–2031, 2032–2041, and 2042–2051 (Table 4.13). There are notable jumps in
mortality in 2032 and 2042 due to participants in the target age demographic entering the
next age brackets of 55–64 years and 65–74 years, respectively.

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