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Figure 4.11
Diagnostic category shifts in Scenario 2

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000

400,000
200,000
0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051

“Healthy” population
Pre-DM
DM cases

Table 4.15

Number of individuals at each diagnostic state per five-year intervals
(Scenario 2)

2022 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
“Healthy” 1,031,809 989,634 947,154 903,951 867,597 817,209 772,835
population
Prediabetes 13,992 66,541 109,499 136,332 153,576 163,627 168,939
population

DM population 82,599 64,618 54,671 51,298 51,714 51,686 52,588

In assessing the cost calculations stemming from implementing a screening and attendant
RAMP-DM Scheme (Scenario 2), our projections show that the gross annual costs closely
mirror that of only implementing a screening programme (Scenario 1). The final total spending
on the screening and risk management Scheme shows that spending is expected to surpass
the total expenditures on a screening-only programme. When comparing only the cost of
complications to Scenario 1, our model projects an annual expenditure surpassing
HKD 1 billion within the last ten years of the time horizon. Additionally, Scenario 1 shows a
decrease in complication and treatment costs towards the end of the time horizon, whereas
expenditures increase in Scenario 2 towards the end of the time horizon.

Concerning spending in Scenario 2, we note a total projected cost of HKD 32.85
billions with a 27.57% savings in costs relative to the Base Scenario
(Table 4.16). Overall, these savings translate to a total of HKD 12.50 billions over the course
of the 30-year horizon.

Total cost of diabetes care (Scenario 2) = [Screening cost] + [Intervention cost] +
[RAMP cost] + [Complications care] + [Care for patients without complications]

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